You need a free Supabase project to store data across users. This takes about 3 minutes.
Step 1 — Create Supabase project
Go to supabase.com → New Project → choose a name and password → wait ~1 min for it to provision.
Step 2 — Run this SQL (once)
In Supabase → SQL Editor → paste and run:
create table if not exists users (
id uuid primary key default gen_random_uuid(),
username text unique not null,
password_hash text not null,
role text default 'viewer',
created_at timestamptz default now()
);
create table if not exists appdata (
id text primary key,
data jsonb not null,
updated_at timestamptz default now()
);
alter table users enable row level security;
alter table appdata enable row level security;
create policy "allow all" on users for all using (true) with check (true);
create policy "allow all" on appdata for all using (true) with check (true);
Step 3 — Paste your credentials
In Supabase → Project Settings → API → copy Project URL and anon public key.
Step 4 — Set admin credentials
MLB Tracker
2026 Season · v5.2
⚾ MLB Tracker
—0-0
MLB Tracker
2026 Season · v5.2
P&L
—
Record
0-0
Units
—
?
—
—
Dashboard
2026 season overview
Total P&L
—
Record
0-0
Win Rate
—
ROI
—
Units P&L
—
Wagered
—
Pending Card
—
Live Scores — Today's Bets
No active bets today.
Recent Plays
P&L Over Time
No graded plays yet — chart will appear after first result
Performance by Bet Type
Performance by Tier
Live Scoreboard
All MLB games today — click any game for full detail
Loading games...
Game Detail
Today's Card
Enter and manage pending card
Card Settings
Plays
#Game / BetTypeOddsUnitsTierRisk / Win
Auto-Grade Log
Log Results
Grade open plays
History
All logged days
Parlay Builder
Combine plays into a parlay — see combined odds and payout
Leg / BetOdds
Parlay Odds & Payout
$
Add at least 2 legs to calculate
Quick Add from Today's Card
No plays on Today's Card yet
Pattern Tracker
Live confidence ratings — updates as you grade results
Current Confidence Ratings
Season Pattern Performance
EV Calculator
Expected value, edge, and Kelly sizing for every bet
What is EV?
Expected value = how much you win on average per $100 bet. Positive EV means the bet profits long-term.
Edge %
Your true probability minus the book's implied probability. Anything above 3% is a strong edge.
Kelly Criterion
Optimal bet size = edge / odds. Most pros use ¼ Kelly to reduce variance. Never bet full Kelly.
Break-even %
Win rate you need at given odds just to break even. -110 requires 52.4%. Your true prob must beat this.
Bet Analysis
Game / BetBook OddsTrue Prob %Break-evenEdgeEV per $100Kelly UnitsVerdict
Reading your results
Strong play — bet it
Edge > 5% · EV > +$5/100 · Kelly > 2u. Book is giving you significantly better odds than your true probability justifies.
Marginal — consider it
Edge 2–5% · EV +$2–5/100. Worth betting at reduced size. Common on totals at -110 where your edge is real but narrow.
Negative EV — skip it
Edge < 0% · EV negative. Your true probability is lower than the implied odds. No matter how good the narrative feels, this loses long-term.
AI Analysis
v5.2 model rules applied automatically
Query
Analyzing with v5.2 model...
Board Analyzer
v5.2 model · auto-fetch · pitcher + bullpen auto-rating
⚡ Fetch games, enter odds, and click ANALYZE FULL SLATE
HOW TO USE — DAILY WORKFLOW
STEP 1 — FETCH Click "FETCH TODAY'S GAMES". The tool auto-loads today's full MLB schedule, confirmed starting pitchers, stadium/park data, and weather for every outdoor game. This takes ~5 seconds.
STEP 2 — RATE PITCHERS For each game, rate the away and home starter:
· ACE = Top 15 arms in MLB (deGrom, Glasnow, Cole, Cease, Flaherty etc.)
· SOLID = Reliable mid-rotation starter
· BACKEND = 5th starter, spot start, or replacement level
This is the only manual step that requires baseball knowledge. Takes ~2 minutes for a full 15-game slate.
STEP 3 — ENTER ODDS Look at your sportsbook screenshot and type in the odds for each game:
· ML Away / ML Home
· RL Away (+1.5) / RL Home (-1.5)
· Total line + Over odds / Under odds
· F5 Under odds (if shown)
You only need to fill what's available — blank fields are skipped.
STEP 4 — ANALYZE Click ANALYZE FULL SLATE. The model runs every bet type across every game, applies all 10 factors, enforces over/under complementary probabilities, and outputs a ranked card in seconds.
DATA SOURCES (all free, no API key)
· Schedule + Pitchers: MLB Stats API (official)
· Weather: Open-Meteo API
· Park Factors: Built-in database (all 30 stadiums)
· Odds: You input manually from your book
IMPORTANT This tool catches systematic edges (weather, park, pitcher matchup). For breaking news (last-minute pitcher switches, lineup injuries), always cross-reference before betting.
How it works: Each pattern has a confidence rating updated after every weekly review. Hit = +2% confidence (max +6%/week). Miss = -4%. Two consecutive misses = -8% immediately. Confidence directly controls edge applied and minimum units.
S-TIER 80%+Full edge. Normal scale min units. Bet aggressively when firing.
A-TIER 65–79%Standard edge. Normal unit scale.
B-TIER 50–64%Edge -25%. Unit cap -1u. Needs confirmation factor.
C-TIER <50%Monitor only. 1u parlay legs max. No standalone plays.
Promotion path: New patterns enter at 55% C-tier → A-tier after 5+ hits or 3+ hits / 0 misses → S-tier after 8+ hits with miss rate under 20%.
All Patterns — Current Confidence Ratings
S-Tier — 80%+ · full edge · min 5u
S-92%Pattern 4 — BACKEND vs BACKEND → OVER default. 6/6 hits — 100%. Zero misses. Both xERA 4.5+. Both exit by inning 4-5. Bullpen chaos. Default over regardless of park or weather. Min edge 4%. Min units 5u. Stack +3% at hitter park (GABP, CBP, Coors). Confirmed: CWS/MIA (13R), PIT/CIN (11R), MIA/CWS (11R), MIL/KC ×3 (10R, 13R, 13R).
S-88%Pattern 6 — Sinker/GB suppression → under modifier. 5/5 — 100%. 55%+ career GB rate → -5% over / +5% under. Stacks on tier. Applies even at Coors (Sanchez confirmed — Coors went under both games). Confirmed arms: Holmes (60%+), Abbott (58%), Kirby (55%+), Pallante (67%), Soriano (MLB GB leader), Sanchez (PHI).
S-82%Pattern 2 — Under setup checklist. 5/6 — 83%. Confirm 2+ of 4: (1) ACE or K/9 10+ arm, (2) dome or pitcher park, (3) total in bottom 25% of slate, (4) sub-50°F outdoor OR both teams cold offense L7. Score: 1=PASS · 2=MARG 3u · 3=SOLID 5u · 4=FIRE 6u.
A-Tier — 65–79% · standard edge · normal units
A-78%Pattern 1 — Over setup (BACKEND + hitter park + wind). 3/4 — 75%. All THREE required: (1) BACKEND arm, (2) hitter-friendly park, (3) wind 10+ mph OUT or 80°F+. ACE/GB arm can negate. Confirmed: WSH/PHI (15R), CWS/MIA (13R), LAD/WSH ×2 (15R, 14R).
A-72%Pattern 3 — ACE vs ACE → UNDER default. Both K/9 10+. Full 100% park+weather cap. 15% min edge for over. NEVER play over below 15% edge. Biggest loss ($400) came from violating this rule.
A-70%D6 — Sweep prevention. 2/3 — 67%. Team facing sweep (0-2 in series), priced as dog +100+. +3% true prob to sweep-facing team. Best use: fade sweeping team at -200+ when true odds ~-110. Confirmed: ATH beat HOU +240, MIA beat NYY.
A-68%D7 — Series finale + rest (the Sunday rule). All 3 must fire: (1) series finale or Sunday/Monday fav playing 3+ straight, (2) fav -150+ with resting regular or no off-day, (3) national TV or marquee team. Effect: -3% fav edge, -1u, +2% dog. Does NOT fire if ACE starts for fav. Stacks with D6 — max +5% combined dog bump.
B-Tier — 50–64% · edge -25% · unit cap -1u · needs confirmation
B-68%Pattern 7 — Hot team ML dog. 3/3 (small sample). Team 7-2+ in games 1-15, priced as dog +100 to +160. Books still on preseason pricing. +4% to true prob. Requires clean matchup. Confirmed: STL swept DET, MIL beat BOS, PIT beat BAL.
B-62%Pattern 5 — Clean ML. 4/7 — 57%. Tier gap + lineup edge + -180 or better. No debut flags, no age caps. Losses from ignoring D-tier, not the pattern itself.
B-60%Pattern 8 — Cold + series finale → under stack. 1/1. D7 fires AND sub-50°F outdoor: primary play is UNDER. Stack D7 (-3%) + B10 cold (-10% to -14%). Confirmed: CWS/TOR cold series finale = 3 total runs.
Sharp Patterns — statistically backed, season-long ROI data
A-74%S3 — Wind 10+ mph IN → Under. 960-781 record (55.1%) since 2005, +6.4% ROI (Action Network Bet Labs). Wind turning HR into warning-track outs. Does NOT fire in domes. Stacks with P2 under checklist. Best at: Wrigley, Fenway, Cleveland.
A-68%S2 — Divisional home dog (+100 to +160). +9% ROI in home RLM system since 2005 (Sports Insights). Div familiarity levels field — public overvalues visitor. Only fires for dogs up to +160. Best value early season when books are slow to adjust. Stacks with D7 series finale.
B-65%D9 — DANG Under (day game after night game). Both teams played night game prior day, today's game before 5pm ET. Hitter fatigue, pitching prep down. -3 to -4% total lean. Stacks with D7 series finale for max -5%. Does NOT fire: ACE starting, Coors, dome.
B-62%S5 — Low total (≤7.5) + quality starters → Under. When books set a low total AND both starters are solid/ace quality, the market is pricing in a pitcher's duel. Under has positive expectation. Stacks with P3, P2.
B-60%S4 — Wind 8+ mph OUT → Over lean. 1,174-1,045 (52.9%), +3.6% ROI since 2005. HR booster angle. Weaker signal than S3. Stacks with P1 (BACKEND + hitter park + wind OUT) for max over boost.
B-58%S6 — Fade trendy public over. When public heavily betting over (65%+) and total hasn't moved up — books holding line = sharp under money countering public. Select line movement dropdown to "Public only" to activate. Action Network: 15-20 games under .500 when public loves an over at 66%+.
C-Tier — monitor only · 1u parlay legs · no standalone
C-55%Pattern 9 — Post-surgery ACE + elite offense → over lean. Starts 2-5 post-TJ/surgery, facing wRC+ 108+. 5 IP max effective. +3% over. Model IP at 5 max. Active arms: McClanahan, Woodruff.
MONITORPattern 10 — ACE/GB at Coors → under viable. 2 data points only. Not active. Promote to C-tier after 4+ data points.
Tier A — Pattern Recognition
A1 · Pattern-first: Match to highest-confidence pattern first. Never play against your own pattern signal.
A2 · Dominant starter override: Single K/9 10+ → cap park+weather 50%. Both K/9 10+ → 100% cap. ACE vs ACE = 15% min edge for over.
A3 · Sinker/GB modifier [S-88%]: 55%+ GB → -5% over / +5% under. Stacks always. Even at Coors. Confirmed: Holmes, Abbott, Kirby, Pallante, Soriano, Sanchez PHI.
A4 · Start-2 regression (v5.2): Power-K (K/9 11+) = HALF penalty — bounces back faster (Mize confirmed). Command/GB = full ACE→SOLID through start 3.
A5 · Pitch count managed (new v5.2): Post-surgery starts 2-5 = PITCH COUNT MANAGED. Model as 5 IP max effective. Bullpen carries 6-9. Current: McClanahan (post-TJ), Woodruff (building up).
Tier B — Primary Modifiers (v5.2)
B1: Implied odds → true prob. Edge = true − implied. Min 4% to consider.
B12: Line movement: Sharp = +5% · Public only = -4% · None = 0%.
Tier C — Precision Factors (v5.2)
C1: BvP: 20+ PA for projection. Any negative career record vs opponent on debut = unit cap (D1).
C2 [v5.3 UPDATED]: Replace record-based bumps with run differential. Run diff +20+ in first 15 games = +3% (genuine quality signal). Run diff -20+ = -3%. Early W-L records are dominated by 1-run game luck — unreliable before 30 games. Separately: 5+ hitters hot (.300+/OPS .900+) = +4-6%. 5+ cold = -4-6%.
C3: Pitcher type vs lineup: Power-K vs high-K = extra suppression. Soft-toss vs pull hitters = damage risk.
C4: F5 evaluation: Run on every strong starter mismatch. Manual grade required.
C5: xERA/xFIP regression: Gap 1.0+ = ±4-6%. Never bet against strong positive regression. Gilbert xERA 2.27 vs ERA 6.75 = market pricing ERA → SEA ML value.
C6: Early-season discount (games 1-15): Form 70% weight. 0-3/0-4 teams = +5% regression bump.
Tier D — Hard Override Rules
D1 [UPDATED v5.2]: Debut + pitch count: New team / return 6+ months / Japan-KBO = +15% variance. Negative career record vs opponent = 3u HARD CAP. Post-surgery starts 2-5 = PITCH COUNT MANAGED (5 IP max). Current: McClanahan, Woodruff.
D2: Age: 38-40 = -2u · 41+ = 3u HARD CAP non-negotiable. Active: Scherzer (TOR) 41+ · Sale (ATL) 38.
D3 [v5.3]: RL threshold updated — ML -200+ skip entirely (aligned with P5 gate). ML -160 to -200 = 4u cap requires 10%+ edge. Research: favorites at -150+ = -310u since 2005 despite 63% win rate.
D4 [v5.3]: Tiered totals cap — Pre-Apr 20: max 6u. Apr 21–May 1: max 8u. May 2+: full 10u. Extended from Apr 20 because early-season variance (cold weather, unproven rotations) persists through May in Northeast/Midwest parks.
D5: Postponement: 40%+ rain = conditional 3u max. 80%+ = skip. Don't lock until 2h before first pitch.
D6 [A-70%]: Sweep prevention: Game 3 of 3-game series. One team won all prior. Sweep-facing dog gets +3%, sweeping team -3% confidence. Best use: sweeping team at -200+ when true odds ~-110.
D7 [A-68%]: Series finale + rest: All 3 must fire: (1) series finale or Sunday/Monday fav playing 3+ straight, (2) fav -150+ with resting regular or no off-day, (3) national TV or marquee team. Effect: -3% fav, -1u, +2% dog. ACE starting for fav = rule does not fire.
D8: Quality filter: Max 7 plays/slate. Never 3+ totals same direction. B/C tier cannot sole-anchor plays above 3u.
Confidence adjustments: S/A-tier = full scale. B-tier sole anchor = -1u, max 4u. C-tier = max 2u. Age 41+ = 3u max. Debut + neg record = 3u max. Totals Apr 20 = 6u max. D7 = -1u from sizing.
Calibration Log
Model Audit
Weekly pattern performance — keeps v5.3 honest
Pattern Performance
All time
TierIDPatternRecordHit %Model ConfStatus
Share Card
Generate a screenshot-ready best bets card for today
Card Preview
Card Options
How to share
Download the PNG and drop it into Discord, iMessage, or Twitter/X. The card includes today's date, your plays, and season record footer. Tap Regenerate after adding plays from Today's Card.